Years in white in c-e indicate the disappearance of all glaciers in a given massif. Geosci. J.B. developed the main glacier model, performed the simulations, analysed the results, and wrote the paper. As for the MB modelling approach, a detailed explanation on this method can be found in a previous dedicated paper on the methods31. Google Scholar. Geosci. (2019) https://doi.org/10.18750/MASSBALANCE.2019.R2019. These synthetic experiments suggest that, for equal climatic conditions, flatter glaciers and ice caps will experience substantially more negative MB rates than steeper mountain glaciers. The original ice thickness estimates of the methods used by both models are different10,32, and for ALPGM we performed some additional modifications to the two largest glaciers in the French Alps (see Glacier geometry evolution for details). Lett. We further assessed the effect of MB nonlinearities by comparing our simulated glacier changes with those obtained from other glacier evolution studies from the literature, which rely on temperature-index models for MB modelling. on various mass balance and radiation components) are opening the door for updated and better constrained projections. In many aspects, it might be too optimistic, as many ice caps will have a negative impact on MB through thinning, bringing their mean surface elevation to lower altitudes, thus further warming their perceived climate. As the Earth heats up due to climate change, glaciers are melting. Model Dev. Kinematic waves on glaciers move as several times the speed of the ice as a whole, and are subtle in topographic expression. J. Glaciol. This rapid glacier retreat is already having an environmental impact on natural hazards20, mountain ecosystems21, and biodiversity6. This synthetic experiment is an approximation of what might occur in other glacierized regions with ice caps. The ice thickness data for two of the largest glaciers in the French Alps were modified in order to improve data quality. a1) over the French Alps. Nature 577, 364369 (2020). Simulations for projections in this study were made by generating an ensemble of 60 cross-validated models based on LSYGO. Future projections of glacier-wide MB evolution were performed using climate projections from ADAMONT25. Data 12, 18051821 (2020). These trends explored with energy balance models from the literature correspond to the behaviour captured by our deep learning MB model, with a clearly less sensitive response of glacier-wide MB to extreme climate forcings, particularly in summer (Fig. In recent years, shrinking glaciers have contributed to about 30% of global sea level rise 1. The vertical blue and red lines indicate the distribution of extreme (top 5%) values for all 21st century projected climate scenarios, with the mean value in the center and 1 indicated by dashed lines. a1 and a r2 of 0.69, explaining 69% of the total MB variance. Ice thickness accuracy varied significantly, with an overall correct representation of the ice distribution but with local biases reaching up to 100%. How Will Melting Glaciers Affect Streamflow? - Eos Our results show that the mean elevation is far more variable than the kinematic ELA ( Fig. Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. S7). Glacier shrinkage in the Alps continues unabated as revealed by a new glacier inventory from Sentinel-2. Warming Seas Are Accelerating Greenland's Glacier Retreat Consortium, R. G. I. Randolph Glacier Inventory 6.0 (2017) https://doi.org/10.7265/N5-RGI-60. Earth Syst. To obtain Ice thickness data for Argentire glacier (12.27km2 in 2015) was taken from a combination of field observations (seismic, ground-penetrating radar or hot-water drilling53) and simulations32.
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